Respiratory Health Impacts of Wildfire Particulate Emissions Under Climate Change Scenarios Funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Project Overview
Southern California faces a unique set of challenges heading into the 21st century. Its high urban population density is concentrated along the coast, but is highly proximate to rural areas dominated by fire-driven ecosystems, an area known as the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI; Radeloff et al. 2005). This large WUI area coupled with a climate phenomena known as the Santa Ana winds make Southern California susceptible to large wildfire disasters (Schroeder et al. 1964, Westerling et al. 2004, Keeley et al. 2004). The Santa Ana Winds create an ideal fire weather environment by exacerbating already-dry conditions and moving hot air at very high speeds through dry shrublands, causing fires ignited in rural areas to be pushed into urban regions of the state. This was exemplified in 2003 and 2007, when large wildfires swept over San Diego County, burning approximately 650,000 acres of grassland and chaparral, killing and injuring several people, and incurring over $3.8 billion in property damages (Karter 2004, Karter 2008). Models of future climate predict weather conditions that will increase the occurrence and severity of wildland fires (Westerling et al. 2006), so it is important to understand how future climate will alter fire regimes and impact public health. Dr. Nancy French and Dr. Tyler Erickson of MTRI are heading a study funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (http://www.niehs.nih.gov/), a part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), to (1) investigate the impact of fire emissions from the 2003 and 2007 San Diego fires on human respiratory health; (2) model future exposure of proximate populations to wildfire particulate matter (PM) emissions under future climate conditions; and (3) provide a complete understanding of the environmental fate of PM traveling from the emitter (fire) to the receptor (human subject) (see Figure 1). The study is affiliated with the NIH Climate Change and Health Initiative and funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).
Assessing the impact of fire emissions from the 2003 and 2007 San Diego fires on human respiratory health will require an integrated analysis of fire emissions, particulate matter concentrations, and the geospatial relationship between these two types of air pollution and health reports. Fire emissions will be quantified using a three-tiered methodology. First, fires will be characterized using a suite of information provided by Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) and NASA MODIS satellite imagery, including fire perimeters and fire timing. Second, fire perimeters will be used with the US Forest Service’s Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) to understand what fuelbeds, or vegetation, were burned in these fires. Finally, the team will utilize the CONSUME fire emissions model to link in these fuel beds and allow fire emissions to be characterized and quantified. The project will utilize the same general approach developed by PI French (French et al. 2002) and utilized in a concurrent NASA-funded project at MTRI.Next, air quality data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (ARB) will be analyzed to quantify the downwind PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations at daily and hourly intervals for the years 2003-2007. We will combine this data with modeled fire smoke plumes using the fire emissions data and the HYSPLIT dispersion model to estimate the smoke exposure of the San Diego County population within the southern California airshed. A statistical model will then be developed to link spatial estimates of PM concentrations to respiratory illness. We will compare initial predictions of smoke PM concentration during 2003 and 2007 fire events to syndromic surveillance health data using a standard linear logistic regression model that includes ancillary variables and a preliminary assessment of uncertainty. Advanced spatial statistical methods for comparing these data sets will be explored and employed in year 2 of the project to improve our ability to predict conditions which cause respiratory problems in people. The overall purpose of this project is to understand future fire conditions and possibilities for smoke exposure that can cause respiratory problems. To this end, a fire occurrence model for the region is being developed to use with future climate scenarios to predict future fire regimes in Southern California and the future health risks to residents of San Diego County.
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For Additional Information Nancy French, Ph.D. Tyler Erickson, Ph.D. Partnering Researchers Dr. Michele Ginsberg, San Diego County Department of Health and Human Services Project Summary - Success Stories References Karter, M.J., Jr. 2004. “Fire Loss in the United States During 2003.” National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA. Available online at www.nfpa.org; last accessed Jan. 2010. Karter, M.J., Jr. 2008. “Fire Loss in the United States During 2008.” National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA. Available online at www.nfpa.org; last accessed Jan. 2010. Keeley, J.E., C.J. Fotheringham, M.A. Moritz. 2004. Lessons from the October 2003 wildfires in Southern California. Journal of Forestry 102(7):26-31. French, N.H.F., E.S. Kasischke, and D.G. Williams. 2002. Variability in the emission of carbon-based trace gases from wildfire in the Alaska boreal forest. J. Geophys. Res. 107:8151. doi:10.1029/2001JD000480. Radeloff, V.C., R.B. Hammer, S.I. Stewart, J.S. Fried, S.S. Holcomb, and J.F. McKeefry. 2005. The Wildland-Urban Interface in the United States. Ecological Applications 15:799-805. Schroeder, M.J., et al. 1964. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather. Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Berkeley, CA. 492 pp. Westerling, A.L., D.R. Cayan, T.J. Brown, B.L. Hall, L.G. Riddle. 2004. Climate, Santa Ana Winds, and autumn wildfires in Southern California. Eos 85(31): 289-296. Westerling, A.L., H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, and T.W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity. Science 313:940-943. Project Plan Planned Activity for Year 1 In Year 1 we will gather the needed data sets and develop and demonstrate general methods for constructing the temporal-geospatial model of smoke PM concentration and the predictive model of health outcomes for initial estimates of possible future fire occurrence based on climate change scenarios. Tasks for Year 1
Significant Deliverables for Year 1 1. Report & journal manuscript(s) describing data sets used and the approach and methodology developed to provide:
2. Report on methodology assessment & year 2 plans:
NIH Grant#: 1 RC1 ES018612 |
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